World Baseball Classic bold predictions

With the World Baseball Classic now underway. every country will be split into 4 even groups, where the teams battle it out in the group stage to hopefully move on to  bracket play. Experts favor the USA at the outset, followed closely by the reigning champions, Japan, and not far behind is the Dominican Republic. Every team has superstar players, such as the headliners of the rotation for the USA in Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Logan Webb. That is a Cy Young, a Cy Young runner up, and a rookie of the year just in the USA rotation. Japan boasts their lineup, with the 4-time MVP and star of the MLB Shohei Ohtani. Star 3rd baseman Munetaka Murakami is also part of the team, who just signed with the Chicago White Sox. Murakami had a walk-off double and a home run in the previous championship game against the now favored US. The D.R. has an impressive outfield with Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, and Fernando Tatis Jr.

In this column, I’m going to sort teams into 5 different categories. The biggest surprise, the most fun team to watch, the biggest disappointment, the underdog, and my favorite to win. 

The Biggest Surprise: Japan. When you hear the word surprise, you might think of it with a positive connotation or a negative connotation. In this case, I’m going negative. This Japan roster is just honestly underwhelming compared to teams in the past. Shohei Ohtani, Munetaka Murakami and Yoshinobu Yamamoto headline this squad. In 2025 Ohtani batted .282 with 55 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 102 RBI over 158 games, and Murakami hit 24 home runs and 52 RBIs over 69 games, which would be the equivalent to 56 home runs and 122 RBI in a full 162 game MLB season. So he could be a superstar with the White Sox. Yamamoto went 12-8 with a 2.49 ERA, 201 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP over 173.2 innings. Now, when you see these stats, they look impressive; which they are, but the rest of their team is mainly league-average MLB and NPB players. It seems to me like they have big holes they need to fix before they can be elite again, like they were in 2023. These holes will be their downfall, and I think they are overestimated. Most journalists still have Japan as a high-ranking team, which is why I put them in the surprising category.

The most fun team to watch: Dominican Republic. When you look at this D.R roster, you see players who are consistent with their fielding and hitting. We already looked at the outfield with Tatis Jr, Soto and Rodriguez, but their infield is not short of any superstar talent either, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 1st, Ketel Marte at 2nd, Manny Machado at 3rd and Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop. This team is definitely more hitting-oriented than any other team in the tournament, which will make for great highlight reels and high scoring games, but their rotation and bullpen are not up to par with what I would think as a championship contender. However, that does not change the fact that this team is going to be very fun to watch.

The biggest disappointment: Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has always been one of those teams that has 3-4 stars and those stars bring the right sort of energy and discipline to the national squad, but this year, Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa will be missing out due to insurance restraints. Puerto Rico will be introducing former USA 3B Nolan Arenado, but I personally do not think he will be able to make up for these losses. The rest of the Puerto Rico team is pretty unexciting with mostly system guys who won’t produce much but are good at baseball and get the team together. I do want to make one thing clear: I’m not saying that this is the worst team in the tournament, but they are just very underwhelming. Compared to teams they’ve put together in the past, this is just very odd to me that they could not do better. Sorry, Puerto Rico. 

The Underdog: Mexico. Mexico had its best WBC year in 2023, finishing 3rd in the last tournament. Mexico doesn’t necessarily have the best players, but the squad has players who are fast, agile, and do the little things right: guys like Taijuan Walker and Andres Munoz in the rotation, and all-stars like Jarren Durran, Alejandro Kirk, Randy Arozarena and Johnathan Aranda. Now, when you hear these names, you may think, “Well, how could these guys be underdogs if their team isn’t elite?” The answer to your question is that the team is solid all around and doesn’t really have any big holes. They have players who can produce offense and defense at every position and are well coached. In my opinion, this is the 2026 WBC underdog.

My Favorite to win: USA. I think the USA still has fire burning in them from a dramatic finish at the last tournament, when Shohei Ohtani struck out teammate Mike Trout to give Japan their first WBC title since 2009. Trout will not be representing the states this year, but superstar talent like Bobby Witt Jr, Captain of team USA Aaron Judge, and rising talents like Roman Anthony and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who came up with the Red Sox and Cubs in 2025, respectively. The deciding factor for me is the rotation. Last World Baseball Classic, the states did not have a very intimidating rotation, with Lance Lynn, an aging Adam Wainwright, and some other pitchers who honestly didn’t provide much besides depth. Now, with a much stronger rotation headlining Skenes, Webb, and Skubal, I believe the pitching has more than enough talent in itself to secure USA’s first win since 2017.

Stars on every team are playing with national pride in this tournament, and this brings a different kind of buzz to the crowd, a more connected feeling to the game. I’m going to have fun watching it while proving my predictions, and remember them when you watch too.